Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile has solid field

Horseracing Betting Lines

11/03/2011 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One mile, eight-furlongs, once around the track. Mile races are the cross-roads event in the thoroughbred world. The meeting of sprinters and distance runners.

The fifth edition of the $1 million Dirt Mile, and the second time at Churchill Downs, has a highly competitive field of nine. With the layout at the historic track the race will be a one-turn event. Last year at the Twin Spires, Dakota Phone went from last to first to post a head victory over pacesetter Morning Line in a time of 1:35.29 on a fast track.

This year's race has three fewer horses than last year with four-year-old Trappe Shot the 3-1 program favorite. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the chestnut colt drew the far outside post with John Velazquez riding.

Trappe Shot has won two of four starts this year, but is coming off a fourth in the Vosburgh at Belmont Park after losing by a nose in the Vanderbilt Handicap at Saratoga. His wins were in a pair of spring stakes at Belmont Park, True North Handicap and Waldoboro Stakes.

Despite his last two starts Trappe Shot got the favorite's role for the Dirt Mile due to his ability to stay just off the pace and fire at the right time.

"The Factor, Shackleford and Tapizar are 1, 2 and 3, so they're going to have to go, so we might get back further stalking them. We might be 10-lengths back if they go a half in 44 (seconds). You never know," McLaughlin said. "It's a great post position because we don't have to be involved in all of that. We're out in the clear."

The Factor and Shackleford, both three-year-olds, are co-second picks at 7-2.

The Factor is trained by Bob Baffert and will have Martin Garcia in the saddle and carry three pounds less than the favorite as will all three-year-olds.

The gray colt was sidelined after losing the Arkansas Derby as the 4-5 favorite. It was discovered that he had a hairline fracture following the race. He returned in August to win the Pat O'Brien Stakes at Del Mar and was fourth in the Ancient Title at Santa Anita.

Preakness Stakes champ Shackleford will be ridden by Jesus Castanon for trainer Dale Romans. The chestnut colt was fifth in the Belmont Stakes with a strong second to Coil in the Haskell. He faded to eighth in the Travers, but came in second to Wilburn in the Indiana Derby.

"We hadn't done much with him since the Indiana Derby and wanted to give him a good work," the trainer noted after a workout. "I've never had a horse run bad after working in 58. You just can't make a horse work like that.

"I can't see anything happening other than The Factor going right for the lead and we'll sit just behind him. And, if Tapizar wants to join him, we'll be happy to sit third. He's not a horse that needs the lead. He'll listen to his rider."

The 4-1 fourth pick is Indiana Derby winner Wilburn owned by Stonestreet Stables and trained by Steve Asmussen. The three-year-old colt is working on a three-race win streak, which includes the Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx Racing.

"Julien (jockey Leparoux) got a dream trip in the Indiana Derby," Asmussen said. "The door was open for him, but he definitely stormed through it. You can get a good trip, but he looked good with the good trip. I like the acceleration he showed.

"I think the trip is extremely important with him. He's a great big horse, bit, tall and leggy. His confidence is exactly where you'd want it to be coming into a race like this, so we feel good about it."

Wilburn will again have Leparoux in the saddle and break from post five.

Another three-year-old entered in the Dirt Mile is Caleb's Posse who ran down Uncle Mo to win the King's Bishop Stakes at Saratoga. The colt is 5-1 in the program and will start from post eight with Rajiv Maragh.

Trained by Donnie Von Hemel, Caleb's Posse won the Amsterdam at Saratoga, but came in third in the Indiana Derby last time out.

"It's hard to say why he didn't run a little better, but it's not surprising that we ran third in a race like that," Von Hemel said. "I thought the winner ran a good race, he got through on the rail, but I don't think anyone was going to beat him (Wilburn) that day. Our horse just kind of ran even. It wasn't outstanding, but the main thing for us was the timing and straight three-year-olds. It was a way for us to get here.

"Because the Dirt Mile was the more likely spot for us, we decided to use the Indiana Derby as a prep," Von Hemel said. "We were stabled in Chicago (Arlington Park), so there wasn't a lot of travel for us. We figured we'd pop over to Indiana and then to Kentucky. We didn't want to have to make another trip back East."

At 12-1 is the well traveled Irrefutable. The five-year-old is trained by Baffert and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano from post six. The gray horse has started on five different tracks this year, including Churchill Downs.

He won a six-furlong allowance race in Louisville on May 4 and two months later moved into stakes company with a second in the Smile Sprint Handicap at Calder.

"We put him in and we know he's a longshot, but he ran well here last spring, and he ran his best race Beyer-wise here as well," Baffert remarked.

The horse was sixth in a pair of stakes before running second in the Ancient Title Stakes at Santa Anita to put him into the Dirt Mile.

"In the Ancient Title we just let him break and come from off the pace and it worked out; he ran a big race," Baffert said. "He'll be coming at the end."

At 15-1 is 2010 Cigar Mile winner Jersey Town. The five-year-old has Cornelio Velasquez riding for trainer Barclay Tagg of Funny Cide fame. The chestnut horse will go for his initial win this year from post seven.

The speedy Tapizar, as mentioned earlier, has the three hole and is 20-1 in the program with Garrett Gomez up for Steve Asmussen. In January the three- year-old won the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita and is coming off an optional claiming victory.

At 30-1 San Diego Handicap winner Tres Borrachos is the longest shot in the morning-line. He followed his win at Del Mar with a sixth in the Pacific Classic and a fifth in the Goodwood. Trained by Marty Jones, the gelding will break from post four with Joel Rosario riding.

There's more than enough speed in the Dirt Mile to give the stalkers and late runners a chance to pounce down the stretch. A good price can be had by all.

Morning-line favorite Trappe Shot over Jersey Town and Irrefutable is the play for Saturday.

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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