Aztecs seek return to win column in MWC clash with Falcons

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/18/2012 - USAFA, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Having lost back-to-back games for the first time this season, the 13th-ranked San Diego State Aztecs try to work their way back into the win column this afternoon as they tangle with the Air Force Falcons in Mountain West Conference play at Clune Arena.

Up until late January, the Aztecs were humming along with just a pair of setbacks on the season, but since then the team has bowed in three of the last five and is now tied for second place in the MWC standings with UNLV at 6-3 because of it. On Wednesday night, the team was beaten at home by New Mexico in a 77-67 final, which means SDSU is now chasing the Lobos in the standings heading into the weekend.

Meanwhile, the Falcons had a surprise of their own three nights ago when they finally picked up that first conference win of the season, a 58-53 triumph over Wyoming on the road no less. The victory snapped a seven-game slide by The Academy and was the first for interim head coach Dave Pilipovich who took over for Jeff Reynolds who was dismissed the week prior.

SDSU won the first meeting of the season last month by a score of 57-44 at home, which means the all-time series now numbers 47-20 in favor of the Aztecs.

The Aztecs had plenty of trouble hitting their marks from three-point range on Wednesday night, connecting on just 3-of-14 attempts out on the perimeter, which was enough to keep the team out of the win column once again. Jamaal Franklin tried to keep the group competitive with 16 points and 10 rebounds, but he would have been smart to remain in the paint where he was serving some good, rather than leaking out to beyond the arc where he missed all four of his shot attempts. Tim Shelton and James Rahon chipped in 13 and 11 points, respectively, in the setback as well. Jamaal Franklin has at least held a share of the scoring lead for the Aztecs in five of the last six outings and that has pushed him to 17.4 ppg in league play, although his mere 26.7 percent shooting behind the three-point line is nothing to be proud of. Chase Tapley (15.8 ppg) is the one who deserves more attention for his three-point prowess, hitting on 43.5 percent of his attempts on the season, but as a whole San Diego State is connecting on only 33.7 percent on the outside for the year and 30.5 percent in conference.

Michael Lyons erupted for 24 points as the Air Force Falcons captured the five-point road win over Wyoming at Arena Auditorium earlier this week. Lyons finished the night shooting 6-of-8 behind the three-point line for the Falcons. Also scoring in double figures for the visitors was Taylor Broekhuis with 12 points. Air Force, which held the Cowboys to a mere four field goals through the first 17 minutes of the second half, picked up the win even though it failed to record a single offensive rebound for the first time since posting an 80-75 win over Colorado State on the same date back in 2003. Lyons has now scored 24 points in each of the last two games and has led the team in scoring in four of the last five outings, en route to 15.4 ppg which paces the program overall. Mike Fitzgerald checks in with 11.1 ppg and Broekhuis 10.2 ppg in conference play, but still this is a group that is scoring just 55.6 ppg versus the rest of the MWC and a mere 61.9 ppg overall in 2011-12.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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